USMNT World Cup 2026 Roster Predictions — February 2026 Update

The Clock Is Ticking

One hundred and seventeen days. That's all that separates us from the opening whistle of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on home soil — the most significant moment in American soccer history. And Mauricio Pochettino, the man tasked with turning this golden generation into genuine contenders, has some absolutely brutal decisions to make.

The 26-man roster isn't going to pick itself. Not this time. Because unlike previous cycles where the pool was thin enough that "who's available" answered most questions, the USMNT in 2026 has genuine depth. There are players who will be left home that would walk into most CONCACAF squads. There are kids who weren't on anyone's radar six months ago now forcing conversations.

We run an AI-powered tracker that monitors every player daily — form, fitness, stats, news — and calculates roster probabilities in real time. Here's what the data is telling us in mid-February.

The Locks 🔒

Let's start with the easy part. These players are going to the World Cup barring catastrophic injury. They are the spine of this team.

Christian Pulisic (Milan, FWD) — 99% probability. Yes, he's in a rough patch. He publicly addressed an "unexpected slump" this week and there are fitness questions swirling. His season numbers — 8 goals, 2 assists in 16 Serie A appearances with a 7.31 FotMob rating — are still excellent. The xG of 5.78 means he's actually overperforming his expected output. Liverpool are reportedly monitoring him. But the noise doesn't change the calculus: Pulisic is the most important player on this roster. Period. The question isn't if he goes — it's whether he shows up at his best. His 0.82 goals per 90 is elite. The 87.1% pass accuracy from a winger who takes risks is impressive. He'll be there.

Weston McKennie (Juventus, MID) — 95% probability. McKennie has been the most consistent American in Europe this season, full stop. A 7.18 rating across 23 appearances (19 starts, 1,675 minutes) is workhorse territory. Four goals from midfield, 1.4 tackles per game, 16 interceptions. He does the unglamorous work — the box-to-box running, the aerial battles, the pressing triggers — that Pochettino's system demands. His xG of 5.08 suggests he could've scored even more. Form rating of 4 out of 5. Locked.

Folarin Balogun (Monaco, FWD) — 92% probability. The number 9 question has haunted the USMNT for years and Balogun is the answer, even if his season (4 goals, 3 assists, 6.81 rating) hasn't been spectacular. He's the focal point. The 2.04 xA shows he's creating for others too. Pochettino needs a target man who can hold the ball, link play, and finish. Balogun does all three. His form rating has dipped to 3, but roster probability stays sky-high because there's no obvious alternative who does what he does.

Matt Freese (NYCFC, GK) — 92% probability. The goalkeeping hierarchy has been one of the more interesting subplots. Freese has emerged as the likely starter with a 7.06 rating across 36 MLS appearances and a form rating of 4. His consistency is what separates him — not flashy, just reliable. You know what you're getting.

Tyler Adams (Bournemouth, MID) — 90% probability. The captain is healthy and playing. That's the headline. After injury nightmares that derailed his career at club level, Adams has strung together 15 appearances for Bournemouth with a 6.95 rating. His form rating of 2 is concerning — he's not at his best — but his leadership and tactical intelligence at the 6 position make him indispensable. Two goals and an assist from a defensive midfielder is a bonus.

Timothy Weah (Marseille, FWD) — 90% probability. Weah has been quietly excellent at Marseille. A 6.94 rating across 18 appearances, 2 goals, 2 assists, and a form rating of 4. He's a Pochettino-type player: versatile, presses like a demon, can play across the front line. At 25, he's entering his peak years at exactly the right moment.

Antonee Robinson (Fulham, DEF) — 95% probability. Jedi Robinson is one of the best left-backs in the Premier League and it's not particularly close among American defenders. His 6.99 rating from 12 appearances understates his impact — he's been managing minutes. The overlap runs, the defensive recovery pace, the sheer engine. He's a lock.

Sergiño Dest (PSV, DEF) — 88% probability. Dest's bounce-back season at PSV has been a revelation. A 7.44 FotMob rating — the highest among all USMNT outfield players — with 1 goal and 4 assists from right-back. His form rating of 3 is solid. After the ACL injury nearly derailed everything, he's back and he's dangerous going forward.

Chris Richards (Crystal Palace, DEF) — 88% probability. Richards is quietly becoming one of the Premier League's most reliable center-backs. A 6.97 rating across 22 appearances, form rating of 4, and a consistency that Pochettino prizes. He defends his box, he's comfortable on the ball, and at 25 he's the present and future of the USMNT backline.

Tim Ream (Charlotte FC, DEF) — 88% probability. At 38, Ream defies Father Time. His 30 MLS appearances show durability. He's the veteran voice in the locker room, the guy who's been through World Cup cycles before, and he can still play at an international level. His 6.75 rating isn't flashy, but experience is its own stat.

The Bubble 💭

This is where it gets painful. These are the players fighting for somewhere between 6 and 10 remaining roster spots — and some of them are going to get devastating phone calls.

Malik Tillman (Bayer Leverkusen, MID) — 80% probability. Tillman is the name that keeps climbing. Playing for the reigning Bundesliga champions, he's posted a 7.30 FotMob rating — better than Pulisic — with 4 goals in 16 appearances. His form rating of 4 is as good as it gets. He's versatile (can play as a 10 or false 9), he's 22, and he's playing high-level football every week. If you're Pochettino, how do you leave this kid home?

Miles Robinson (FC Cincinnati, DEF) — 75% probability. Robinson's athleticism is unique in the pool. At 6'2" with recovery speed that defies his frame, he's a different type of center-back option. Thirty appearances with a 6.95 rating — solid. The question is whether Pochettino values his physical tools over the more technical options.

Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders, MID) — 72% probability. Here's a name that surprises people. Roldan has been exceptional in MLS — a 7.43 FotMob rating, 1 goal, 3 assists across 34 appearances. That rating is elite. He's 31, experienced, and brings a veteran's composure to the midfield. Could be a sneaky-important inclusion.

Ricardo Pepi (PSV, FWD) — 70% probability. Pepi's season has been a rollercoaster. Eight goals in 15 Eredivisie appearances is objectively good — a 7.24 rating backs it up. But he's currently injured, and the status is uncertain. When healthy, his movement and finishing are second to none in the pool. This is purely a fitness race now.

Tanner Tessmann (Lyon, MID) — 68% probability. Tessmann has carved out a role at Lyon with a 6.95 rating across 19 appearances and a form rating of 4. He's a physical, ball-winning midfielder who can also pick a pass. At 24, he's a prototypical Pochettino press-and-possession midfielder.

Giovanni Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach, MID) — 65% probability. This one hurts to write. Reyna's talent is generational — we've all seen the flashes. But a form rating of 1, zero goals, zero assists in 13 appearances, and a 6.47 rating tell a brutal story. He's injured again. The probability has cratered from where it was six months ago. Can he get fit and find form in 117 days? The door is closing, not closed.

Auston Trusty (Celtic, DEF) — 60% probability. With Cameron Carter-Vickers out for the season at Celtic, Trusty has stepped into a bigger role and hasn't blinked. A 7.19 rating across 17 appearances with form rating of 4. He's playing Champions League football. That matters.

Alex Freeman (Villarreal, DEF) — 60% probability. Freeman is an interesting case — 6 goals and 4 assists from a defender across 38 appearances at Villarreal. Those are ridiculous attacking numbers from the back. Form rating of 4. He's forcing his way into the conversation.

Diego Luna (Real Salt Lake, MID) — 60% probability. Luna has been the breakout MLS star: 9 goals, 3 assists, a 7.26 rating across 28 appearances, form rating of 4. He's 22, he's creative, and he plays with the kind of fearlessness Pochettino loves. The question is whether an MLS-based midfielder gets the nod over European options.

Mark McKenzie (Toulouse, DEF) — 60% probability. Steady, professional, available. A 6.93 rating across 19 Ligue 1 appearances. McKenzie won't make highlight reels but he won't make mistakes either.

Biggest Risers 📈

These are the players whose stock is moving the fastest in the right direction.

Malik Tillman — We mentioned him above, but it bears repeating. Going from Bundesliga role player to 80% roster probability is a testament to what happens when talent meets opportunity at Bayer Leverkusen. His 7.30 rating is earned against top competition weekly.

Diego Luna — From fringe call-up to 60% probability. Nine goals from midfield in MLS is hard to ignore, and his form rating of 4 suggests he's still climbing. If he keeps this up through the spring, he's on the plane.

Alex Freeman — The Villarreal defender with the attacking output of a winger. Six goals and four assists from defense is genuinely absurd. He's jumped from unknown to serious contender.

Gianluca Busio — Under the radar at Venezia in Serie A, Busio has posted a 7.55 FotMob rating — the highest of any USMNT player. Let that sink in. Five goals, an assist from midfield, form rating of 3. He's only at 30% probability because the competition is fierce, but that rating demands attention.

Sebastian Berhalter — Yes, that last name carries baggage. But 4 goals and 10 assists in MLS with a 7.62 rating? That's not a last name stat. That assist number leads the entire USMNT player pool. Currently at 40% probability, trending upward.

Injury Watch ⚠️

World Cup dreams can end in a physio's office. Here's who we're monitoring:

Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic, DEF) — Out for the season. This is the biggest loss for the pool. When healthy, CCV was a lock — a 7.43 rating in just 7 appearances showed his class. But he's done for the year. His 10% probability reflects the near-impossibility of a return. A gut-wrenching blow.

Giovanni Reyna (Borussia Mönchengladbach, MID) — Currently injured with a form rating of 1. Zero goal contributions in 13 appearances. The talent was never in question; the body keeps betraying him. At 65% probability, he's living off reputation and potential. He needs to be fit and firing by April, or the door closes.

Ricardo Pepi (PSV, FWD) — Injured and racing the clock. When he plays, the numbers are there (8 goals, 7.24 rating). But availability is the best ability, and right now he doesn't have it.

Johnny Cardoso (Atletico Madrid, MID) — Injured and at just 20% probability. A player who should be in the conversation but has managed only 8 appearances this season. His 6.77 rating doesn't capture how good he can be when healthy. Time is running out.

Josh Sargent (Norwich City, FWD) — Listed as "uncertain" status. He's been productive when playing (8 goals, 3 assists in 24 Championship appearances) but the fitness concerns linger. At 40% probability, he's a question mark wrapped in a gamble.

Dark Horse Picks 🐴

Every World Cup roster has a surprise. Here are three names that could shock people:

Gianluca Busio (Venezia, MID) — 30% probability, but that 7.55 FotMob rating is screaming. Busio has quietly become one of the best-rated Americans in any European league. Five goals from midfield in Serie A — a league that eats midfielders alive — shows genuine quality. He's 23. If Pochettino wants a technically gifted option off the bench who can control tempo, Busio is right there. Don't sleep on this one.

Paxten Aaronson (Colorado Rapids, MID) — 20% probability, but his brother Brenden's presence in camp could be a factor. A 7.24 rating from just 7 appearances shows promise, and at 21, he's exactly the kind of young wildcard coaches love to stash as a 25th or 26th roster spot.

Patrick Agyemang (Derby County, FWD) — 35% probability. Nine goals and 3 assists in 27 Championship appearances. He offers something no one else in the pool does: a physical, direct striker who can change games off the bench. In a tournament setting where you're chasing a game at minute 70, Agyemang's directness could be invaluable.

The Bottom Line

Pochettino has depth, and depth creates dilemmas. The locks are clear — Pulisic, McKennie, Balogun, Freese, Adams, Weah, Robinson, Dest, Richards, Ream. That's your spine. But filling out the remaining 16 spots? That's where careers get made and hearts get broken.

The biggest storylines between now and June: Can Reyna resurrect his World Cup dream? Does Pepi win his fitness race? Will Pochettino reward the MLS-based risers like Luna and Berhalter, or default to European pedigree? And the goalkeeping trio — Freese seems set as number one, but who backs him up?

One thing is certain: 26 players will board the plane. Roughly 15 will feel like they were robbed. That's the beautiful cruelty of a World Cup roster.

We track every player's probability daily — updated with real stats, injury reports, and form analysis — on our live roster tracker. If this article has you refreshing squad lists at 2 AM, you're going to love it.

Track every player's probability daily on our live USMNT World Cup roster tracker →